Phenomenal Opportunity: Lauren Rosborough

Lauren Rosborough

We received the phenomenal opportunity today to listen to Lauren Rosborough, Senior Adviser at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), discuss the NZ economy and the challenges the RBNZ faces in monitoring inflation. We cannot discuss the content of her off-the-record presentation, but the discussion included highly detailed analyses of the NZ dollar exchange rate, interests rates, migration (growth), Christchurch rebuild, and NZ trade partners. Lauren's visit came on the day that the RBNZ, through Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler, issued a statement announcing an increase in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.5 percent. This statement included the following text:

RBNZ raises OCR to 3.5 percent

"New Zealand’s economy is expected to grow at an annual pace of 3.7 percent over 2014. Global financial conditions remain very accommodative and are reflected in low interest rates, narrow risk spreads, and low financial market volatility. Economic growth among New Zealand’s trading partners has eased slightly in the first half of 2014, but this appears to be due to temporary factors.

Construction, particularly in Canterbury, is growing strongly. At the same time, strong net immigration is adding to housing and household demand, although house price inflation has moderated further since the June Statement.

Over recent months, export prices for dairy and timber have fallen, and these will reduce primary sector incomes over the coming year. With the exchange rate yet to adjust to weakening commodity prices, the level of the New Zealand dollar is unjustified and unsustainable and there is potential for a significant fall.

Inflation remains moderate, but strong growth in output has been absorbing spare capacity. This is expected to add to non-tradables inflation. Wage inflation is subdued, reflecting recent low inflation outcomes, increased labour force participation, and strong net immigration.

Today’s move will help keep future average inflation near the 2 percent target mid-point and ensure that the economic expansion can be sustained. Encouragingly, the economy appears to be adjusting to the monetary policy tightening that has taken place since the start of the year. It is prudent that there now be a period of assessment before interest rates adjust further towards a more-neutral level.

The speed and extent to which the OCR will need to rise will depend on the assessment of the impact of the tightening in monetary policy to date, and the implications of future economic and financial data for inflationary pressures."

Prior to her current role, Lauren spent six years in London working as a FX Strategist. She was an offshore expert on the European Crisis for TVNZ Business, was a regular guest host on CNBC, ABC News, and Bloomberg Television, and was frequently quoted in the print media including the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal. Prior to her offshore experience, Lauren worked as an Economist for National Bank. She completed her studies at the University of Otago in Economics with Honours (first class).

Thank you Lauren, we'll look forward to catching up again next year!